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Washingto Gas Energy Services: A Washington Gas Affiliate Complany
Volume 8, Issue 27
We know how to deliver energy.
July 6, 2009 Energy Update
In this Issue
Editors Note
Two week overview covering the period of June 19, 2009 to July 2, 2009.
Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update
Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
NYMEX Values: Thursday, July 2, 2009
NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*
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Editors Note
Two week overview covering the period of June 19, 2009 to July 2, 2009.

Due to the July 4th  holiday and technical difficulties,  this energy update covers 14 days instead of our normal seven day period.  Energy prices for this 14 day period were down. Crude oil prices led the way dropping from $72/barrel to a five week low of $67/barrel. The 12 month average price for natural gas at the well-head fell 6.6% and the average 12 month price for peak power on the PJM fell 8.6%.  These price declines were related to moderating weather forecasts and disappointing economic data that hit the marketplace. For example, the government reports indicated that the U.S. jobless rate recently reached a 26 year high. The marketplace is concerned that the timing of  the global economic recovery may be delayed.  Note:  Natural gas and electricity prices are at a 5 year low. However, at some point, the declining rig counts will begin placing upward pressure on natural gas and electricity prices.  During the last 12 months , the natural gas rig count has fallen from 1539 rigs to 688 rigs. That is a 55% decrease in rigs.

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Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update

 

 Current Week

Last Week 

Net Change

 Last Year 

 5 Year

 

 Stocks (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 Average (Bcf)

 Total Lower 48

2,721

2,651

70

2,106

2,254

Storage Update:  According to EIA Estimates, working gas in storage for the week ending June 26, ’09 was 2,721 Bcf following this week’s injection of 70 Bcf.  Inventories are 29.2 % above last year’s levels and are 20.7% above the 5 year average.   We have a record surplus of gas in storage for this time of year.

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Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
Drilling Rig Update: Active rig count released by Baker Hughes for week ending July 2 was 688 rigs.  This count is 851 lower than the count reported this same week last year.  We are now 47% below the 5-year avg. rig count of 1310.
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NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Aug-08

$0.9217

Dec-08 

$0.6888 

Apr-09 

$0.3631

Sep-08

$0.8394 

Jan-09 

$0.6136 

May-09 

$0.3321

Oct-08

$0.7472 

Feb-09 

$0.4476 

Jun-09 

$0.3538

Nov-08 

$0.6469

Mar-09  

$0.4056 

July-09 

$0.3939

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NYMEX Values: Thursday, July 2, 2009
(Price per therm at the well-head)

 Aug-09

 $0.3615

Jan-10

$0.5707

Jun-10

$0.5720

Sep-09

 $0.3757

Feb-10

$0.5745

July-10

$0.5837

 Oct-09

 $0.3996

Mar-10

$0.5687

12-month

$0.5113

 Nov-09

 $0.4692

Apr-10

$0.5582

11/09-3/10

$.54446

 Dec-09

 $0.5392

May-10

$0.5627

Crude oil

$67/bl.

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NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
(excludes Interstate Transportation)

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PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price

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Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*

 

Local Cooling Degree Days* 

 

May-09

Jun-09

                 

     

 Actual

93

272

        

       

        

        

 Normal

107

304

  

 

 

 

 Departure from Normal

15.1%

11.8%

 

 

 

 

Cooler

Cooler

 

 

 

 

 

* Cooling degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline.  If the average temperature is below 65, there are no cooling degree days that day.  If the average temperature is greater than 65 degrees, then subtract 65 from the average temperature to find the number of cooling degree days

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