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Washingto Gas Energy Services: A Washington Gas Affiliate Complany
Volume 8, Issue 33
We know how to deliver energy.
August 14, 2009 Energy Update
In this Issue
Editors Note
Week in review for period of August 7, 2009 to August 13, 2009.
Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update
Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
NYMEX Values: Thursday, August 13, 2009
NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*
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Editors Note
Week in review for period of August 7, 2009 to August 13, 2009.

The recent upward trend for energy prices was based on the hopes that energy demand was increasing and the economy was on the road to recovery.  However, the upward trend ended this week because natural gas and oil inventories are still very high and actual demand for energy is still low. For this report period, the 12 month avg. price for natural gas at the well-head fell 3% while the avg. 12 month price for peak power on the PJM fell 2%. Crude oil prices remained flat closing at $71/barrel.  As you can see from the graphs below, the Bears and Bulls have been evenly matched over the last seven months. The good news is that we are still at a five year low. The future of prices depends on the upcoming hurricane season, August temperatures, and certainly the economy.

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Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update

 

 Current Week

Last Week 

Net Change

 Last Year 

 5 Year

 

 Stocks (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 Average (Bcf)

 Total Lower 48

3,152

3,089

63

2,560

2,635

Storage Update:  Inventories are above 3,100 Bcf.  This is an extremely high level for this time of year.  Working gas in storage for the week ending August 7, 2009 was 3,152 bcf  following this week’s smaller than expected injection of 63 bcf. The inventories are 23.1% above last year’s levels. We are 19.6% above the 5 year average.

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Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
Drilling Rig Update: Active rig count released by Baker Hughes for week ending August 7 was 681 rigs. Wow, that is an increase of 4 rigs. Is this the bottom for the rig count numbers ? This count is 890 lower than the count reported this same week last year.  We are now 48% below the 5-year avg. rig count of 1304.
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NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Sep-08

$0.8394

Jan-09 

$0.6136

May-09 

$0.3321

Oct-08

$0.7472 

Feb-09 

$0.4476

Jun-09 

$0.3538

Nov-08

$0.6469 

Mar-09 

$0.4056 

July-09 

$0.3939

Dec-08 

$0.6888

Apr-09  

$0.3631

Aug-09 

$0.3379

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NYMEX Values: Thursday, August 13, 2009
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Sep-09

$0.3336

Feb-10

$0.5650

July-10

$0.5817

Oct-09

$0.3673

Mar-10

$0.5602

Aug-10

$0.5912

Nov-09

$0.4555

Apr-10

$0.5550

12-month

$0.5197

Dec-09

$0.5342

May-10

$0.5605

11/09-3/10

$.53530

Jan-10

$0.5616

Jun-10

$0.5700

Crude oil

$71/bl.

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NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
(excludes Interstate Transportation)

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PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price

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Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*

 

Local Cooling Degree Days* 

 

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

           

     

 Actual

93

272

   378  

       

        

        

 Normal

107

304

  456

 

 

 

 Departure from Normal

15.1%

11.8%

20.1%

 

 

 

Cooler

Cooler

Cooler

 

 

 

 

* Cooling degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline.  If the average temperature is below 65, there are no cooling degree days that day.  If the average temperature is greater than 65 degrees, then subtract 65 from the average temperature to find the number of cooling degree days

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