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Washingto Gas Energy Services: A Washington Gas Affiliate Complany
Volume 8, Issue 35
We know how to deliver energy.
August 28, 2009 Energy Update
In this Issue
Editors Note
Week in review for period of August 21, 2009 to August 27, 2009.
Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update
Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
NYMEX Values: Thursday, August 27, 2009
NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*
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Editors Note
Week in review for period of August 21, 2009 to August 27, 2009.

At the risk of being redundant, the Bears and Bulls wrestled to another stalemate this week. For this report period, the 12 month avg. price for natural gas at the well-head remained flat. The avg. 12 month price for peak electricity on the PJM was also flat. Even crude oil prices were stagnant, closing at $72/barrel for the second straight week. As you can see from the graphs below, energy prices are “range bound.”  Energy prices continue to hover at this five  year low because natural gas and crude oil inventories are well above the 5 year averages and energy demand remains low.  According to the EIA, “gas stocks appear likely to exceed the previous all-time record” of 3,565 bcf reported in Oct. 2007.  Variables to watch: Hurricanes, economic data, and the sharp decline in the drilling rig count.

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Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update

 

 Current Week

Last Week 

Net Change

 Last Year 

 5 Year

 

 Stocks (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 Average (Bcf)

 Total Lower 48

3,258

3,204

54

2,742

2,758

Storage Update:  Inventories are near capacity with two months left in the injection season. Last year, we did not hit the 3,200 Bcf mark until Oct. 3. This is a high level for this time of year. Working gas in storage for the week ending 8/21/09 was 3,258 bcf following this week’s injection of 54 bcf. The inventories are 19% above last year’s levels. We are 18% above the 5 year average.

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Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
Drilling Rig Update:  Active rig count released by Baker and Hughes for week ending August 21 was 695 rigs. That is an increase of 7 rigs. This is the fifth increase in a row. However, the rig count is still  899 lower than the count reported this same week last year.  We are now 47% below the 5-year avg. rig count of 1301.
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NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Oct-08

$0.7472 

Feb-09 

$0.4476

Jun-09 

$0.3538

Nov-08

$0.6469 

Mar-09 

$0.4056 

July-09 

$0.3939

Dec-08 

$0.6888

Apr-09  

$0.3631

Aug-09 

$0.3379

Jan-09 

$0.6136

May-09 

$0.3321

Sep-09 

$0.2843

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NYMEX Values: Thursday, August 27, 2009
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Oct-09

$0.3206

Mar-10

$0.5407

Aug-10

$0.5785

Nov-09

$0.4189

Apr-10

$0.5394

Sep-10

$0.5857

Dec-09

$0.5047

May-10

$0.5459

12-month

$0.4944

Jan-10

$0.5334

Jun-10

$0.5567

11/09-3/10

$0.50758

Feb-10

$0.5402

July-10

$0.5690

Crude oil

$72/bl.

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NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
(excludes Interstate Transportation)

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PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price

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Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*

 

Local Cooling Degree Days* 

 

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

           

     

 Actual

93

272

   378  

       

        

        

 Normal

107

304

  456

 

 

 

 Departure from Normal

15.1%

11.8%

20.1%

 

 

 

Cooler

Cooler

Cooler

 

 

 

 

* Cooling degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline.  If the average temperature is below 65, there are no cooling degree days that day.  If the average temperature is greater than 65 degrees, then subtract 65 from the average temperature to find the number of cooling degree days

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