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Washingto Gas Energy Services: A Washington Gas Affiliate Complany
Volume 8, Issue 38
We know how to deliver energy.
September 18, 2009 Energy Update
In this Issue
Editors Note
Week in review for period of September 11, 2009 to September 17, 2009.
Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update
Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
NYMEX Values: Thursday, September 17, 2009
NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*
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Editors Note
Week in review for period of September 11, 2009 to September 17, 2009.

It was another volatile week. Natural gas prices were up 6% on Wednesday but down 4% on Thursday. For this report period, after the smoke cleared, energy prices rose for the second straight week. The 12 month avg. price for nat. gas at the well-head rose 1.8%. The avg. 12 month price for peak electricity on the PJM rose 1.7%. Crude oil prices were flat closing at $72/barrel. Nat. gas and electricity prices remain range bound. Analysts say it is hard to guess the direction of energy prices because it is difficult to predict the effects of the drop in rig counts, and it is difficult to gauge the pace of the economic recovery. This week’s price rally was ignited by positive economic news. However, the price rally was softened by the natural gas storage report that reminded us that storages are near record high levels. Expect more volatility as winter arrives.

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Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update

 

 Current Week

Last Week 

Net Change

 Last Year 

 5 Year

 

 Stocks (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 Average (Bcf)

 Total Lower 48

3,458

3,392

66

2,962

2,971

Storage Update:  Inventories surpassed last year’s season-ending mark of 3,458 bcf with six weeks left in the injection season. We may hit 4,000 bcf which is near the full mark. Working gas in storage for the week ending 9/11/09 was 3,458 bcf following this week’s injection of 66 bcf. The inventories are 16.7% above last year’s levels. We are 16.4% above the 5 year average.

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Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count

Drilling Rig Update:  Active rig count released by Baker and Hughes for week ending September 11, 2009 was 699 rigs. That is a decrease of 2 rigs. This is the first decrease in eight weeks. The rig count is still 887 lower than the count reported this same week last year. We are now 46% below the 5-year avg. rig count of 1298.

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NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Oct-08

$0.7472 

Feb-09 

$0.4476

Jun-09 

$0.3538

Nov-08

$0.6469 

Mar-09 

$0.4056 

July-09 

$0.3939

Dec-08 

$0.6888

Apr-09  

$0.3631

Aug-09 

$0.3379

Jan-09 

$0.6136

May-09 

$0.3321

Sep-09 

$0.2843

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NYMEX Values: Thursday, September 17, 2009
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Oct-09

$0.3458

Mar-10

$0.5375

Aug-10

$0.5696

Nov-09

$0.4455

Apr-10

$0.5368

Sep-10

$0.5773

Dec-09

$0.5115

May-10

$0.5418

12-month

$0.5211

Jan-10

$0.5363

Jun-10

$0.5503

11/09-3/10

$0.51418

Feb-10

$0.5401

July-10

$0.5608

Crude oil

$72/bl.

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NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
(excludes Interstate Transportation)

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PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price

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Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*

 

Local Cooling Degree Days* 

 

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

     

     

 Actual

93

272

   378  

467

        

        

 Normal

107

304

  456

407

 

 

 Departure from Normal

15.1%

11.8%

20.1%

12.8%

 

 

Cooler

Cooler

Cooler

Warmer

 

 

 

* Cooling degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline.  If the average temperature is below 65, there are no cooling degree days that day.  If the average temperature is greater than 65 degrees, then subtract 65 from the average temperature to find the number of cooling degree days

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