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Washingto Gas Energy Services: A Washington Gas Affiliate Complany
Volume 8, Issue 40
We know how to deliver energy.
October 2, 2009 Energy Update
In this Issue
Editors Note
Week in review for period of September 25, 2009 to October 1, 2009.
Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update
Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
NYMEX Values: Thursday, October 1, 2009
NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*
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Editors Note
Week in review for period of September 25, 2009 to October 1, 2009.

Last week natural gas and electricity prices rose at the beginning of the trading week but dropped at the end of the week.  At the end of the wrestling match, the 12 month avg. price for natural gas at the well-head rose by only 0.2%.  The avg. 12 month price for electricity on the PJM rose 1.7%.   Although electricity and natural gas prices rose for the fourth straight week, the price rally was insignificant.  The price rallies were squashed by news that the natural gas storage levels reached an all-time high. (See “Storage Update” below)  Additionally, downward pressure was placed on prices after the government reported the unemployment rate grew to 9.8%.  In summary, the abundant short term supply of natural gas has minimized the price rallies. However, analysts are worried about the fact that the natural gas rig count is 50% lower than a year ago.

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Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update

 

 Current Week

Last Week 

Net Change

 Last Year 

 5 Year

 

 Stocks (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 Average (Bcf)

 Total Lower 48

3,589

3,525

64

3,098

3,108

Storage Update:  Inventories reached a record high topping 3,589 bcf with four weeks left in injection season. Previous record was 3,565 bcf set in  October 2007.   Working gas in storage for the week ending 9/25/09 was 3,589 bcf following this week’s injection of 64 bcf. The inventories are 15.8% above last year’s levels. We are 15.5% above the 5 year average.

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Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count

Drilling Rig Update:  Active rig count released by Baker and Hughes for week ending September 25, 2009 was 710 rigs. That is an increase of 5 rigs. The rig count is still 849 lower than the count reported this same week last year. We are now 45% below the 5-year avg. rig count of 1,295.

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NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Nov-08

$0.7472 

Mar-09 

$0.4056

July-09 

$0.3939

Dec-08

$0.6888 

Apr-09 

$0.3631 

Aug-09 

$0.3379

Jan-09 

$0.6136

May-09  

$0.3321

Sept-09 

$0.2843

Feb-09 

$0.4476

Jun-09 

$0.3538

Oct-09 

$0.373

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NYMEX Values: Thursday, October 1, 2009
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Nov-09

$0.4466

Apr-10

$0.5653

Sept-10

$0.6040

Dec-09

$0.5327

May-10

$0.5703

Oct -10

$0.6200

Jan-10

$0.5637

Jun-10

$0.5788

12-month

$0.5669

Feb-10

$0.5696

July-10

$0.5883

11/09-3/10

$0.53568

Mar-10

$0.5658

Aug-10

$0.5973

Crude oil

$70/bl.

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NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
(excludes Interstate Transportation)

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PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price

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Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*

 

Local Cooling Degree Days* 

 

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

              

 Actual

93

272

   378  

467

172

        

 Normal

107

304

  456

407

200

 

 Departure from Normal

15.1%

11.8%

20.1%

12.8%

16.3%

 

Cooler

Cooler

Cooler

Warmer

 Cooler

 

 

* Cooling degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline.  If the average temperature is below 65, there are no cooling degree days that day.  If the average temperature is greater than 65 degrees, then subtract 65 from the average temperature to find the number of cooling degree days

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