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Washingto Gas Energy Services: A Washington Gas Affiliate Complany
Volume 8, Issue 45
We know how to deliver energy.
November 6, 2009 Energy Update
In this Issue
Editors Note
Week in review for period of October 30, 2009 to November 5, 2009.
Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update
Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
NYMEX Values: Thursday, November 5, 2009
NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*
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Editors Note
Week in review for period of October 30, 2009 to November 5, 2009.

Energy prices fell for the second straight week. The price decreases can be tied to news that shows we have record high inventories and minimal weather- related demand in the forecast. Natural gas and oil supplies are plentiful while energy demand is sluggish. Natural gas storages reached an all-time record high as the traditional injection season ended Oct. 31,’09. This new storage record is 6% higher than the previous record set October, 2007. Additionally, oil inventories are at a 26 year high. For this report period, the 12 month average price for natural gas at the well-head fell 5%. The average 12 month price for electricity on the PJM fell 3%. Crude oil prices fell $1 closing at $79/barrel. Here are two wild cards that can impact the direction of energy prices: When will the demand for energy increase, and when will the big drop in rig counts impact supply. For now, natural gas and electricity prices are near the five year low.

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Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update

 

 Current Week

Last Week 

Net Change

 Last Year 

 5 Year

 

 Stocks (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 Average (Bcf)

 Total Lower 48

3,788

3,759

29

3,409

3,374

Storage Update:  Inventories reached another record high of 3,788 bcf. The injection season ended Nov. 1, 2009. The previous record was 3,565 bcf set in October 2007.   Working gas in storage for the week ending 10/30/09 was 3,788 bcf following last week's modest injection of 29 bcf. The inventories are 11.1% above last years's levels. We are 12.3% above the 5 year average.

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Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count

Drilling Rig Update:  Active rig count released by Baker and Hughes for week ending October 30, 2009 was 728 rigs. That is an increase of 3 rigs. The rig count is still 824 lower than the count reported this same week last year.  We are now 44% below the 5-year avg. rig count of 1,289.

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NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Dec-08

$0.6888

Apr-09 

$0.3631

Aug-09 

$0.3379

Jan-08

$0.6136

May-09 

$0.3321 

Sept-09 

$0.2843

Feb-09 

$0.4476

Jun-09  

$0.3538

Oct-09 

$0.3730

Mar-09 

$0.4056

July-09 

$0.3939

Nov-09 

$0.4289

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NYMEX Values: Thursday, November 5, 2009
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Dec-09

$0.4782

May-10

$0.5246

Oct -10

$0.5724

Jan-09

$0.5121

Jun-10

$0.5339

Nov-10

$0.6149

Feb-09

$0.5176

July-10

$0.5443

12-month

$0.5372

Mar-10

$0.5181

Aug-10

$0.5531

11/09-3/10

$0.5065

Apr-10

$0.5186

Sept-10

$0.5589

Crude oil

$79/bl.

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NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
(excludes Interstate Transportation)

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PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price

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Weather
Local Cooling Degree Days*

 

Local Cooling Degree Days* 

 

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

 Actual

93

272

   378  

467

172

    14      

 Normal

107

304

  456

407

200

28

 Departure from Normal

15.1%

11.8%

20.1%

12.8%

16.3%

50.0%

Cooler

Cooler

Cooler

Warmer

 Cooler

Cooler

 

* Cooling degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline.  If the average temperature is below 65, there are no cooling degree days that day.  If the average temperature is greater than 65 degrees, then subtract 65 from the average temperature to find the number of cooling degree days

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