| In this Issue |
| Editors Note |
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| Natural Gas |
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| PJM Electricity |
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| Weather |
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| Week in review for period of November 6, 2009 to November 12, 2009. |
Energy prices fell for the third straight week. For this report period, the 12 month average price for natural gas at the well-head fell 5.8%. The average 12 month price for electricity on the PJM fell 4%. Crude oil prices fell $3/barrel closing at $76/barrel. For now, the principles of supply and demand are actually running the show. The lack of cold weather and the slow economic recovery have created a low demand for natural gas, crude oil and electricity. As a result of the low demand for energy, supplies are high. For example, for this report period, crude oil stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels which was higher than expected. Natural gas inventories are at record high levels. But do not be lulled to sleep. Some weather forecasters are predicting a colder than normal winter for the eastern half of the Unites States. Plus the big drop in the rig count may impact supplies. One year ago we had 1,552 active rigs. Now we have 734 active rigs. |
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| Natural Gas |
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Current Week |
Last Week |
Net Change |
Last Year |
5 Year |
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Stocks (Bcf) |
Stocks (Bcf) |
(Bcf) |
Stocks (Bcf) |
Average (Bcf) |
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Total Lower 48 |
3,813 |
3,788 |
25 |
3,463 |
3,404 |
Storage Update: Inventories reached another record high of 3,788 bcf. The injection season ended Nov. 1, 2009. The previous record was 3,565 bcf set in October 2007. Working gas in storage for the week ending 11/6/09 was 3,813 bcf following last week's modest injection of 25 bcf. The inventories are 10.1% above last years's levels. We are 12.0% above the 5 year average. |
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| Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count |
Drilling Rig Update: Active rig count released by Baker and Hughes for week ending November 6, 2009 was 734 rigs. That is an increase of 6 rigs. The rig count is still 805 lower than the count reported this same week last year. We are now 43% below the 5-year avg. rig count of 1,288. |
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| NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements |
| (Price per therm at the well-head) |
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Dec-08 |
$0.6888 |
Apr-09 |
$0.3631 |
Aug-09 |
$0.3379 |
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Jan-08 |
$0.6136 |
May-09 |
$0.3321 |
Sept-09 |
$0.2843 |
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Feb-09 |
$0.4476 |
Jun-09 |
$0.3538 |
Oct-09 |
$0.3730 |
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Mar-09 |
$0.4056 |
July-09 |
$0.3939 |
Nov-09 |
$0.4289 | |
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| NYMEX Values: Thursday, November 12, 2009 |
| (Price per therm at the well-head) |
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Dec-09 |
$0.4370 |
May-10 |
$0.4946 |
Oct -10 |
$0.5439 |
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Jan-09 |
$0.4761 |
Jun-10 |
$0.5044 |
Nov-10 |
$0.5857 |
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Feb-09 |
$0.4841 |
July-10 |
$0.5154 |
12-month |
$0.5059 |
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Mar-10 |
$0.4870 |
Aug-10 |
$0.5239 |
12/09-3/10 |
$0.47105 |
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Apr-10 |
$0.4887 |
Sept-10 |
$0.5304 |
Crude oil |
$76/bl. | |
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| NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head |
| (excludes Interstate Transportation) |
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| PJM Electricity |
| PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price |
| On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price |
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| Weather |
| Local Cooling Degree Days* |
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Local Cooling Degree Days* |
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May-09 |
Jun-09 |
Jul-09 |
Aug-09 |
Sep-09 |
Oct-09 |
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Actual |
93 |
272 |
378 |
467 |
172 |
14 |
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Normal |
107 |
304 |
456 |
407 |
200 |
28 |
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Departure from Normal |
15.1% |
11.8% |
20.1% |
12.8% |
16.3% |
50.0% |
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Cooler |
Cooler |
Cooler |
Warmer |
Cooler |
Cooler |
* Cooling degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline. If the average temperature is below 65, there are no cooling degree days that day. If the average temperature is greater than 65 degrees, then subtract 65 from the average temperature to find the number of cooling degree days |
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