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Washingto Gas Energy Services: A Washington Gas Affiliate Complany
Volume 9, Issue 8
We know how to deliver energy.
February 26, 2010 Energy Update
In this Issue
Editors Note
Week in review for period of February 19, 2010 to February 25, 2010.
Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update
Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
NYMEX Values: Thursday, February 25, 2010
NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Heating Degree Days*
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CleanSteps(SM) Windpower
Editors Note
Week in review for period of February 19, 2010 to February 25, 2010.
Natural gas and electricity prices fell for the second straight week. For this report period, the 12 month average price for natural gas at the well-head fell 4.7%. The average 12 month price for electricity on the PJM fell 4.6%.  Even though the cold February temperatures reduced the year-over-year gas surplus as noted in this week’s storage report, energy prices were able to fall. (A shrinking gas bubble usually places upward pressure on prices.) Apparently energy prices fell this week because gas storages were still above the five year average, natural gas production was increasing, the economy was growing more slowly than expected and forecasters were calling for the return of normal temperatures. Stay tuned. We still have six weeks left in the traditional winter season and the story line can change quickly. Note: Natural gas prices have fallen 8% and electricity prices have fallen 7% over the last two weeks. This is a good time to look at the early renewal strategy.
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Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update

 

 Current Week

Last Week 

Net Change

 Last Year 

 5 Year

 

 Stocks (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 Average (Bcf)

 Total Lower 48

1,853

2,025

-172

1,909

1,840

Storage Update:  This week’s reported withdrawal was 172 Bcf.  Inventories are now only 0.7% above the five year average. Last week we were 2.7% above the five year avg.  Plus we are now 2.9% below last year’s levels. Last week we were 1.3% above last year’s levels. We still have 6 weeks left in the withdrawal season.

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Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count

Drilling Rig Update:  Active rig count released by Baker and Hughes for week ending February 19, 2010 was 893 rigs.  The rig count is 125 lower than the count reported this same week last year. We are 30% below the 5-year avg. rig count of 1,276.

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NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Apr-09

$0.3631

Aug-09 

$0.3379

Dec-09 

$0.4486

May-09 

$0.3321

Sept-09  

$0.2843

Jan-10

$0.5814

Jun-09 

$0.3538

Oct-09 

$0.3730

Feb-10 

$0.5274

July-09 

$0.3939

Nov-09 

$0.4289

Mar-10 

$0.4816

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NYMEX Values: Thursday, February 25, 2010
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Apr-10

$0.4767

Sept-10

$0.5093

Feb-11

$0.6048

May-10

$0.4831

Oct-10

$0.5195

Mar-11

$0.5908

Jun-10

$0.4910

Nov-10

$0.5515

12-month

$0.5354

July-10

$0.4992

Dec-10

$0.5855

11/10-3/11

$0.58818

Aug-10

$0.5055

Jan-11

$0.6083

Crude oil

$78/bl.

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NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
(excludes Interstate Transportation)

 

                                                              Trade Date

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PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price

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Weather
Local Heating Degree Days*

 

Local Heating Degree Days* 

 

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

 Actual

376

835

914

 

 

         

 Normal

477

775

  917

 

 

 

 Departure from Normal

21.2%

7.74%

0.3%

 

 

 

Warmer

Cooler

Warmer

 

 

 

 

* Heating degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline.  If the average temperature is above 65, there are no heating degree days that day.  If the day's average temperature is less than 65 degrees, subtract the day's average temperature from 65 to find the number of heating degree days for that day.

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