| In this Issue |
| Editors Note |
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| Natural Gas |
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| PJM Electricity |
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| Weather |
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| Week in review for period of November 19, 2010 to December 2, 2010. |
Over the last few weeks, the energy prices were flat lining. However, that trend line has now been broken. For this report period, the 12 month average price for natural gas at the well-head rose 5% and the 12 month average price for peak power on the PJM also rose by 1%. Crude oil prices rose by 7%. It is no secret why energy prices spiked upward. Colder than normal temperatures have hit much of the country and the 8-14 day forecast calls for temperatures to remain below normal. This cold snap has created space heating demand in most of the country and thus placed upward pressure on pricing for now. Mother Nature and the economic recovery will drive pricing for the near term. |
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| Natural Gas |
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Current Week |
Last Week |
Net Change |
Last Year |
5 Year |
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Stocks (Bcf) |
Stocks (Bcf) |
(Bcf) |
Stocks (Bcf) |
Average (Bcf) |
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Total Lower 48 |
3,814 |
3,837 |
-23 |
3,837 |
3,467 |
Storage Update: Although the traditional withdrawal season began Nov.1, we just now saw the first withdrawal of the season. This means cold weather has arrived. We had a withdrawal of 23 Bcf this week. We are now 0.6% below last year’s levels, but are still 10% above the 5 year average. |
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| Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count |
Weekly Drilling Rig Update: Active rig count released by Baker and Hughes for the week ending 11/24/10 was 953 rigs which increased 17 rigs from the previous week. The count is 205 higher than the count reported this same week last year. We are 23% below the 5 year average rig count of 1,243. |
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| NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements |
| (Price per therm at the well-head) |
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Jan-10 |
$0.5814 |
May-10 |
$0.4271 |
Sept-10 |
$0.3651 |
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Feb-10 |
$0.5274 |
June-10 |
$0.4155 |
Oct-10 |
$0.3837 |
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Mar-10 |
$0.4816 |
July-10 |
$0.4717 |
Nov-10 |
$0.3292 |
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Apr-10 |
$0.3842 |
Aug-10 |
$0.4774 |
DEC-10 |
$0.4267 | |
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| NYMEX Values: Thursday, December 2, 2010 |
| (Price per therm at the well-head) |
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Jan-11 |
$0.4343 |
June-11 |
$0.4353 |
Nov-11 |
$0.4771 |
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Feb-11 |
$0.4350 |
July-11 |
$0.4411 |
Dec-11 |
$0.5074 |
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Mar-11 |
$0.4312 |
Aug-11 |
$0.4451 |
12-month |
$0.4473 |
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Apr-11 |
$0.4280 |
Sept-11 |
$0.4471 |
12/10-3/11 |
$0.43350 |
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May-11 |
$0.4307 |
Oct-11 |
$0.4554 |
Crude Oil |
$88/barrel | |
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| NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head |
| (excludes Interstate Transportation) |
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| PJM Electricity |
| PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price |
| On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price |
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| Weather |
| Local Cooling Degree Days* |
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Local Heating Degree Days* |
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Nov10 |
Dec-10 |
Jan-11 |
Feb-11 |
Mar-11 |
April-11 |
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Actual |
428 |
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Normal |
477 |
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Departure from Normal |
10% |
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Warmer |
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** Heating degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline. If the day’s average temperature is above 65, there are no heating degree days that day. If the day’s average temperature is less than 65 degrees, subtract the day’s average temperature from 65 to find the number of heating degree days for that day. |
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