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Washingto Gas Energy Services: A Washington Gas Affiliate Complany
Volume 10, Issue 4
We Know Energy.
January 28, 2011 Energy Update
In this Issue
Editors Note
Week in review for period of January 21, 2011 to January 27, 2011.
Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update
Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
NYMEX Values: Thursday, January 27, 2011
NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Heating Degree Days*
 

 

For more information, contact your WGES Account Manager or wges_lgc@wges.com.
CleanSteps(SM) Windpower
Editors Note
Week in review for period of January 21, 2011 to January 27, 2011.

Natural gas and electricity are two of the most unpredictable commodities in the world. For example, this week, the natural gas storage surplus shrunk again. We are now only 1% above the 5 year average. This news would normally spook the market and place upward pressure on prices. However instead of panicking, the market focused on the fact that we only have 7 weeks left in winter. In other words, winter is almost over and there is no need to panic. For this report period, the 12 month average price for natural gas at the well-head fell 6% and the 12 month average price for peak power on the PJM fell 3.8% erasing last week’s gains. Stay tuned. The forecast is colder than normal and the economy had the best 4th quarter in 4 years.

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Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update

 

 Current Week

Last Week 

Net Change

 Last Year 

 5 Year

 

 Stocks (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 Average (Bcf)

 Total Lower 48

2,542

2,716

 -174

2,533

2,513

Storage Update:  For the 8th week in a row, we had a larger than normal withdrawal.  This week’s withdrawal was 174 Bcf. The 5 yr. average withdrawal was 152 Bcf.  The gas surplus is shrinking.  We are only 1.1% above the 5 year average. The surplus over last year has also shrunk. We are only 9 Bcf above last year.

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Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count

Weekly Drilling Rig Update:  Active rig count released by Baker and Hughes for the week ending 1/21/11 was 906 rigs. This was an increase of 4 rigs from the previous week and marks the first increase after 6 weeks of decrease.  The count is 73 higher than the count reported this same week last year. We are 27% below the 5 year average rig count of 1,233.

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NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Feb-10

$0.5274

June-10

$0.4155

Oct-10 

$0.3837

Mar-10

$0.4816

July-10 

$0.4717

Nov-10 

$0.3292

Apr-10

$0.3842

Aug-10

$0.4774

Dec-10 

$0.4267

May-10

$0.4271

Sept-10

$0.3651

Jan-11

$0.4216

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NYMEX Values: Thursday, January 27, 2011
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Feb-11

$0.4316

July-11

$0.4480

Dec-11

$0.4946

Mar-11

$0.4319

Aug-11

$0.4508

Jan-12

$0.5066

Apr-11

$0.4336

Sept-11

$0.4513

12-month

$0.45473

May-11

$0.4384

Oct-11

$0.4557

1/11-3/11

$0.43175

June-11

$0.4428

Nov-11

$0.4714

 Crude Oil

$86/barrel 

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NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
(excludes Interstate Transportation)

       

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PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price

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Weather
Local Heating Degree Days*

 

Local Heating Degree Days* 

 

Nov10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

April-11

 Actual

428

933 

 

 Normal

477

775 

 

 

 

 Departure from Normal

10%

20% 

 

 

 

 

Warmer

Colder

 

 

 

 

* Heating degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline.  If the day’s average temperature is above 65, there are no heating degree days that day.  If the day’s average temperature is less than 65 degrees, subtract the day’s average temperature from 65 to find the number of heating degree days for that day. 

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