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Washingto Gas Energy Services: A Washington Gas Affiliate Complany
Volume 10, Issue 5
We Know Energy.
February 4, 2011 Energy Update
In this Issue
Editors Note
Week in review for period of January 28, 2011 to February 3, 2011.
Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update
Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
NYMEX Values: Thursday, February 3, 2011
NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Heating Degree Days*
 

 

For more information, contact your WGES Account Manager or wges_lgc@wges.com.
CleanSteps(SM) Windpower
Editors Note
Week in review for period of January 28, 2011 to February 3, 2011.

As you can see from the graphs below, energy prices have been “range-bound” for the last two years.  Prices move up then fall again. It is the Bears versus the Bulls. It is supply versus demand.  On the supply side, EIA reports that “U.S. natural gas production hit its highest level ever for Nov. at 63 Bcf/day.” This output was 9% higher than a year ago. The discovery of shale gas is a big reason that production is up. On the demand side, consumption is up because consumers are burning more energy to heat their homes. It is a draw for now. Going forward, one big wild card to watch is the economy. For this report period, the 12 month avgerage price for natural gas at the well-head rose1.8% and the 12 month average price for peak power on the PJM was flat.

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Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update

 

 Current Week

Last Week 

Net Change

 Last Year 

 5 Year

 

 Stocks (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 Average (Bcf)

 Total Lower 48

2,353

2,542

 -189

2,422

2,348

Storage Update:  For the 9th week in a row, we had a larger than normal withdrawal.  This week’s withdrawal was 189 Bcf. The 5 year average withdrawal was 165 Bcf.  The gas surplus is shrinking.  We are only 0.1% above the 5 year average. The surplus over last year has now turned into a 69 Bcf deficit.

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Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count

Weekly Drilling Rig Update:  Active rig count released by Baker and Hughes for the week ending 1/28/11was 913 rigs. This was an increase of 7 rigs from the previous week and marks the second increase after 6 weeks of decreases.  The count is 52 higher than the count reported this same week last year. We are 26% below the 5 year average rig count of 1,233.

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NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Mar-10

$0.4816

July-10

$0.4717

Nov-10 

$0.3292

Apr-10

$0.3842

Aug-10 

$0.4774

Dec--10 

$0.4267

May-10

$0.4271

Sept-10

$0.3651

Jan-11 

$0.4216

June-10

$0.4155

Oct--10

$0.3837

Feb-11

$0.4316

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NYMEX Values: Thursday, February 3, 2011
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Mar-11

$0.4337

Aug-11

$0.4541

Jan-12

$0.5077

Apr-11

$0.4357

Sept-11

$0.4545

Feb-12

$0.5054

May-11

$0.4405

Oct-11

$0.4589

12-month

$0.4631

June-11

$0.4461

Nov-11

$0.4735

11/11-3/12

$0.44981

July-11

$0.4513

Dec-11

$0.4959

 Crude Oil

$91/barrel 

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NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
(excludes Interstate Transportation)

       

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PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price

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Weather
Local Heating Degree Days*

 

Local Heating Degree Days* 

 

Nov10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

April-11

 Actual

428

933 

965 

 Normal

477

775 

917 

 

 

 Departure from Normal

10%

20% 

5% 

 

 

 

Warmer

Colder

Colder 

 

 

 

* Heating degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline.  If the day’s average temperature is above 65, there are no heating degree days that day.  If the day’s average temperature is less than 65 degrees, subtract the day’s average temperature from 65 to find the number of heating degree days for that day. 

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