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Washingto Gas Energy Services: A Washington Gas Affiliate Complany
Volume 10, Issue 6
We Know Energy.
February 11, 2011 Energy Update
In this Issue
Editors Note
Week in review for period of February 4, 2011 to February 10, 2011.
Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update
Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
NYMEX Values: Thursday, February 10, 2011
NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Heating Degree Days*
 

 

For more information, contact your WGES Account Manager or wges_lgc@wges.com.
CleanSteps(SM) Windpower
Editors Note
Week in review for period of February 4, 2011 to February 10, 2011.

Although natural gas inventories were slightly below the 5 year average for the first time in 13 months, the weather forecast and abundant supply forecasts placed downward pressure on prices this week. For this report period, the 12 month average price for natural gas at the well-head fell 5% and the 12 month average price for peak power on the PJM fell 2.6%. On the weather front, winter is over in 5 weeks and the 8 to 14 day forecast from NOAA called for above average temperatures in most of the country. On the production side, natural gas is abundant thanks to the recent discovery of shale gas. (Natural gas production increased by 4% from ‘09 to ‘10.) It is supply versus demand. Note: If gas prices go lower, producers could start cutting back on production in an effort  to raise prices.

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Natural Gas
EIA Gas Storage Update

 

 Current Week

Last Week 

Net Change

 Last Year 

 5 Year

 

 Stocks (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 (Bcf)

Stocks (Bcf)

 Average (Bcf)

 Total Lower 48

2,144

2,353

 -209

2,242

2,189

Storage Update:  For the 10th week in a row, we had a larger than normal withdrawal.  This week’s withdrawal was 209 Bcf.  The 5 year average withdrawal   was 159 bcf.  The gas surplus is shrinking fast. We are, for the first time in 13 months, below the 5 year average. Inventories are now 2% below the 5 year average and 4% below last year’s levels.

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Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count

Weekly Drilling Rig Update:  Active rig count released by Baker and Hughes for the week ending 2/4/11 was 911 rigs. This was a decrease of 2 rigs from the previous week.  The count is 33 higher than the count reported this same week last year. We are 31% below the 5 year average rig count of 1,231.

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NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Mar-10

$0.4816

July-10

$0.4717

Nov-10 

$0.3292

Apr-10

$0.3842

Aug-10 

$0.4774

Dec--10 

$0.4267

May-10

$0.4271

Sept-10

$0.3651

Jan-11 

$0.4216

June-10

$0.4155

Oct--10

$0.3837

Feb-11

$0.4316

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NYMEX Values: Thursday, February 10, 2011
(Price per therm at the well-head)

Mar-11

$0.3986

Aug-11

$0.4271

Jan-12

$0.4876

Apr-11

$0.4037

Sept-11

$0.4277

Feb-12

$0.4863

May-11

$0.4110

Oct-11

$0.4325

12-month

$0.4368

June-11

$0.4175

Nov-11

$0.4511

11/11-3/12

$0.42144

July-11

$0.4238

Dec-11

$0.4749

 Crude Oil

$87/barrel 

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NYMEX 12-Mo. Avg. Price Per Therm at the Well-Head
(excludes Interstate Transportation)

       

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PJM Electricity
PJM 12-Month Average Peak Power Price
On-Peak 1 Year Forward Price

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Weather
Local Heating Degree Days*

 

Local Heating Degree Days* 

 

Nov10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

April-11

 Actual

428

933 

965 

 Normal

477

775 

917 

 

 

 Departure from Normal

10%

20% 

5% 

 

 

 

Warmer

Colder

Colder 

 

 

 

* Heating degree days are calculated by comparing the day’s average temperature to a 65 degree baseline.  If the day’s average temperature is above 65, there are no heating degree days that day.  If the day’s average temperature is less than 65 degrees, subtract the day’s average temperature from 65 to find the number of heating degree days for that day. 

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