Energy prices were flat this week. This was only the second week out of seven weeks that natural gas and electric prices did not fall. For this seven day report period, the 12 month average price for natural gas on the NYMEX was identical to last week's close. The 12 month average price for peak power on the PJM also closed at last week's level.
During the shoulder month called October, when heating and cooling demands are minimal, it is not a huge surprise to see downward pressure on energy prices. However, one of the big variables placing downward pressure on prices this October versus last October is supply. Natural gas supplies are more robust this year thanks to the shale gas discoveries. For example, have you seen the natural gas storage numbers over the last few weeks? The gas injections during the first two weeks of October are 65% greater than the 5 year average and 41% greater than last year. This is one sign that production is up. High production and mild weather are keeping a lid on energy prices for now.
However, winter is heading this way. The 8-14 day forecast calls for the onset of below normal temperatures east of the Mississippi. As demand increases, there may some upward pressure placed on energy prices.