Volume 18, Issue 10 November 8, 2021
In this Issue
How To Make Your Home Office Energy Efficient
Editor's Note
Record Warm October
Weather
Washington, D.C. Area Cooling/Heating Degree Days
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Editor's Note
Record Warm October
Week in review for October 31-November 6, 2021

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that working gas in storage as of Friday October 29, 2021, was 3,611 Bcf. This was an increase of 63 Bcf from the previous week, slightly lower than market expectations. Inventories are currently 313 Bcf lower than last year and 101 Bcf below the 5-year average. These deficits are much lower than they were at the beginning of September, when they peaked at 595 Bcf versus last year and 235 Bcf below the 5-year average. However, we have now entered the withdrawal season and fears remain regarding the supply/demand balance including this lower-than-typical storage balance and increasing US exports taking advantage of Asian and European LNG prices which, though easing in the last few weeks, are still very high relative to the US.

It was a very warm October for most of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. At DCA airport HDDs (heating degree days) were 70% below normal and the lowest on record. Record high temperatures were also reported in Toledo, Columbus, Washington Dulles, Baltimore, Harrisburg, and Scranton. This decreased heating demand throughout the region, but because October can be considered a shoulder month, with relatively small heating (and cooling) demand, the impact on the overall supply/demand picture was smaller than it would have been for a record warm December or January. Forecasts are currently calling for a return to approximately normal weather for November, and there is little ability to accurately predict the rest of the winter at this time.

The 12-month NYMEX natural gas strip (Dec 21-Nov 22) was down 0.8% and the PJM Western Hub ATC (7X24) 12-month strip up 2.5%. Prices remain very high for this winter versus both historical and forward market prices for future years as shown below for gas.


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