Volume 18, Issue 10 December 6, 2021
In this Issue
Tips to Save On Your Energy Bill This Winter
Editor's Note
Prices Retreat on Warm Forecasts
Weather
Washington, D.C. Area Cooling/Heating Degree Days
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Editor's Note
Prices Retreat on Warm Forecasts
Week in review for November 28 December 4, 2021

Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that working gas in storage as of Friday November 26, 2021, was 3,564 Bcf. This was a decrease of 59 BCF from the previous week, in line with market expectations. Inventories are now 375 Bcf lower than at the same time last year, and 86 Bcf below the 5-year average.

As we have been noting, natural gas prices have been volatile and were subject to big swings based on changing weather forecasts. After trading up on black Friday, this week forecasts for early December warmed significantly and prices plummeted as a result. For the week ending 12/2/2021, the 12-month NYMEX natural gas strip (Jan-Dec 2022) was down 13.8% and the PJM Western Hub ATC (7X24) 12-month strip was down 9.8%. Prices for the balance of the winter were down even more steeply with Jan-Mar2022 down 20.2% for gas and 19.6% for power.

Despite the large decreases this week, prices for 2022 delivery are still up significantly since this time last year, with natural gas up 42% since 12/2/2020 and power prices up a whopping 62%. Prices for 2023 and beyond have been less volatile (as further out delivery periods almost always are) and remain a significant discount versus 2022 prices.

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