Volume 13, Issue 6 February 6, 2015
In this Issue
Editor's Note
Supply versus Demand
Renewable Energy
New Product: Solar Power with 20-year Price Protection
Natural Gas Fundamentals
Natural Gas Storage Update: The Big Reverse
Rig Count for Natural Gas
NYMEX Natural Gas Monthly Settlements for the Past 12 Months
NYMEX Values per Month for the Forward 12 Months
NYMEX Graph for Natural Gas - 12 Month Average Price per Therm at the Louisiana Well-Head
PJM Electricity
PJM Graph for Electricity - 12 Month Average Peak Power Price
Weather
Local Heating Degree Days*
Editor's Note
Supply versus Demand
Two Week Review for January 23, '15 - February 5, '15

For this two week report period, the average 12-month price for natural gas on NYMEX fell 4.8% per therm while the12-month average price for peak power on the PJM  stayed steady closing up less than 1/2 of percent.

Over the last two weeks, the analysts have focused their attention on the natural gas storage levels and the natural gas production levels.  On the storage side, we have seen two surprisingly low withdrawals in a row. This week's withdrawal was 30% lower than the five year average of 165 Bcf.   Thanks to these small withdrawals, the storage deficit is disappearing.  Storage levels are now only 1.2% below the five year average. Some analysts predict the storage deficit will be non-existent at the end of winter.

On the production side, we are enjoying record gas output from the natural gas wells with most of the growth  coming from the shale formations.  The market has plenty of supply.  According to Aaron Calder, a senior Analyst at Gelber & Associates, who was quoted in "Gas Daily,"  new production is simply outstripping demand. 

For now, supply is greater than demand and energy prices look attractive. Stay tuned. NOAA is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for the period of Feb.12-20,2015.