For this two week report period, the average 12-month price for natural gas on NYMEX fell 4.8% per therm while the12-month average price for peak power on the PJM stayed steady closing up less than 1/2 of percent.
Over the last two weeks, the analysts have focused their attention on the natural gas storage levels and the natural gas production levels. On the storage side, we have seen two surprisingly low withdrawals in a row. This week's withdrawal was 30% lower than the five year average of 165 Bcf. Thanks to these small withdrawals, the storage deficit is disappearing. Storage levels are now only 1.2% below the five year average. Some analysts predict the storage deficit will be non-existent at the end of winter.
On the production side, we are enjoying record gas output from the natural gas wells with most of the growth coming from the shale formations. The market has plenty of supply. According to Aaron Calder, a senior Analyst at Gelber & Associates, who was quoted in "Gas Daily," new production is simply outstripping demand.
For now, supply is greater than demand and energy prices look attractive. Stay tuned. NOAA is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for the period of Feb.12-20,2015.