On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that working gas in storage as of Friday, October 19, 2018, was 3,095 BCF. This was an increase of 58 BCF from the previous week, and was larger than what the market was expecting. Inventories are still substantially lower than the year ago levels (by 606 BCF or 16.4%) and the five-year average (by 624 BCF or 16.8%).
After a warmer than normal summer, October’s temperatures in our region (as measured at Washington Reagan National Airport) have been a mixed bag. For the first 11 days of the month, zero Heating Degree Days (HDDs) had occurred (compared to the 30-year average of approximately 45 HDDs). From October 12th through 25th, there were approximately 129 HDDs (compared to the 30-year average of approximately 99 HDDs). With current projections, we expect total October HDDs to be close to the 30-year average of 207 HDDs. However, the National Weather Service is predicting a warmer than normal start to November for the entire East Coast, based on their most recent 8-14 day temperature outlook.
Prices were mixed this week. The PJM West Hub 12-month forward curve was up 0.1% this week, while the NYMEX natural gas 12-month strip was down 1.9%. Stay tuned as we enter the winter heating season.
This past week's market information is provided as a courtesy to our customers and is not indicative of, nor should be relied upon, as representative of future transactions.