Volume 18, Issue 10 May 3, 2021
In this Issue
Editor's Note
Near Term Increases due to Production and LNG
Weather
Washington, D.C. Area Cooling/Heating Degree Days
Editor's Note
Near Term Increases due to Production and LNG
Week in review for April 25 May 1, 2021

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that working gas in storage as of Friday April 23, 2021 was 1,898 BCF.  This was an increase of 15 BCF from the previous week, higher than market expectations. Inventories are now 302 BCF lower than last year at this time, and 40 BCF below the 5-year average.

Forward energy markets were up this week. The NYMEX natural gas 12-month strip (Jun21-May22) ended up 1.3% and the PJM Western Hub ATC (7X24) 12-month strip was up 0.4%.

Over the last month natural gas near-term (Jun21-May22) prices have risen 6% with power following, though to a lesser extent, up 3%.   The increases are due in large part a tightening supply demand balance caused by relatively flat production (supply) and increased LNG exports (demand).   With production expected to eventually pick back up, natural gas prices for Cal 2023 & 2024 and beyond have risen much less than the prompt 12-months, up between 1-2%, increasing the “discount” of Cal 2023 & 2024 which now trade $0.38/MMBtu lower than Jun21-May22.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Forward Prices ($/MMBtu)

Term

Jun21-May22

2022

2023

2024

2025

Current Value

2.96

2.74

2.58

2.58

2.63